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We developed an economic forecast model to estimate the impact that the response to the COVID-19 pandemic will have on the revenues of cities throughout California. Almost all cities are projected to lose some revenue, but we found that COVID-19 restrictions are significantly impacting cities that rely on tourism and entertainment.

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Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 on City Revenues

The file below includes key data points from our analysis projecting the extent to which city revenues have been impacted by COVID-19.

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Data Dictionary

Category Column Header in CSV Description
Background Information City City name.
County Name of the county where the city is located.
Final Results of Our Analysis Total Estimated Revenue Changes in Fiscal Years 2019-20 and 2020-21 Sum of estimated losses for hotel taxes, sales and use taxes, business license taxes, parking taxes, and admissions taxes by city for fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21.
Total Estimated Revenue Changes as a Percentage of 2018-19 Expenditures Total estimated revenue changes in fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21 divided by fiscal year 2018-19 expenditures.
Projected Remaining Reserves Sum of total estimated revenue changes in fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21 plus fiscal year 2018-19 general fund reserves.
Projected Remaining Reserves as a Percentage of Expenditures Projected remaining reserves divided by fiscal year 2018-19 expenditures.
Data From City's Audited Financial Statements* 2018-19 General Fund Reserves Sum of committed, assigned, and unassigned fund balances.
2018-19 General Fund Expenditures Sum of expenditures and transfers out (transfers from the general fund to other city funds).
2018-19 General Fund Revenues Revenues deposited in a city's general fund, the main operating fund of a city government.
Hotel Tax Analysis Hotel Taxes as a Percentage of Total Revenue Transient occupancy tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities.
Estimated 2018-19 Hotel Tax Revenue Hotel taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues.
Fiscal Year 2019-20 Estimated Change to Hotel Tax Revenue Change value provided by our consultant based on actual hotel tax data for fiscal year 2019-20.
Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Hotel Tax Revenue** Forecast value provided by our consultant.
Total Forecasted Change to Hotel Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20 and 2020-21 A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. First, we multiplied estimated fiscal year 2018-19 hotel tax revenue by the fiscal year 2019-20 estimated change to hotel tax revenue. To compound the values, we then added the estimated 2018-19 hotel tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change to hotel tax revenue. We then added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 to arrive at the total forecasted change to hotel tax revenue for both fiscal years.
Sales and Use Tax Analysis Sales and Use Taxes as a Percentage of Total Revenue Sales and use tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities.
Estimated 2018-19 Sales and Use Tax Revenue Sales and use taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues.
Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Sales and Use Tax Revenue** Forecast value provided by our consultant.
Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Sales and Use Tax Revenue** Forecast value provided by our consultant.
Total Forecasted Change to Sales and Use Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20 and 2020-21 A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. First, we multiplied estimated fiscal year 2018-19 sales and use tax revenue by the fiscal year 2019-20 forecasted change to sales and use tax revenue. To compound the values, we then added the estimated 2018-19 sales and use tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change to sales and tax revenue. We then added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 to arrive at the total forecasted change to sales and use tax revenue for both fiscal years.
Business License Tax Analysis Business License Taxes As A Percentage of Total Revenue Business license tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities.
Estimated 2018-19 Business License Tax Revenue Business license taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues.
Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Business License Tax Revenue** Forecast value provided by our consultant.
Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Business License Tax Revenue** Forecast value provided by our consultant.
Total Forecasted Change to Business License Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20 and 2020-21 A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. First, we multiplied estimated fiscal year 2018-19 business license tax revenue by the fiscal year 2019-20 forecasted change to business license tax revenue. To compound the values, we then added the estimated 2018-19 business license tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change to business license tax revenue. We then added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 to arrive at the total forecasted change to business license revenue for both fiscal years.
Admissions Tax Analysis. Admissions Tax Analysis Admissions Taxes As A Percentage of Total Revenue Admissions tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities.
Estimated 2018-19 Admissions Tax Revenue Admissions taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues.
Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Admissions Tax Revenue** Forecast value provided by our consultant.
Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Admissions Tax Revenue** Forecast value provided by our consultant.
Total Forecasted Change to Admissions Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20 and 2020-21 A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. Estimated fiscal year 2018-19 admissions tax revenue multiplied by the forecasted change for fiscal year 2019-20. To compound the values, we then added the 2018-19 estimated admissions tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change. Finally, we added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 to arrive at the total forecasted change for both years.

We did not compound values for Indian Wells because we projected it will lose 100 percent of its admissions tax revenue in fiscal year 2019-20.
Parking Tax Analysis Parking Taxes As A Percentage of Total Revenue Parking tax totals divided by total tax revenues from data the State Controller collects from cities.
Estimated 2018-19 Parking Tax Revenue Parking taxes as a percentage of total revenue multiplied by fiscal year 2018-19 general fund revenues.
Fiscal Year 2019-20 Forecasted Change to Parking Tax Revenue** Forecast value provided by our consultant.
Fiscal Year 2020-21 Forecasted Change to Parking Tax Revenue** Forecast value provided by our consultant.
Total Forecasted Change to Parking Tax Revenue in Fiscal Years 2019-20 and 2020-21 A multi-step calculation involving revenue data and projections. Estimated fiscal year 2018-19 parking tax revenue multiplied by the forecasted change for fiscal year 2019-20. To compound the values, we then added the 2018-19 estimated parking tax revenue to the results of the formula above. We multiplied that value by the fiscal year 2020-21 forecasted change. Finally, we added the change in fiscal year 2019-20 to the change in fiscal year 2020-21 to arrive at the total forecasted change for both years.

*Twenty-eight cities did not have fiscal year 2018-19 financial statements and two cities had fiscal year 2018-19 financial statements that did not conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. We used 2017-18 financial statements as a proxy for fiscal year 2018-19 financial data for the following cities: Adelanto, Arcata, Blue Lake, California City, Clearlake, Coalinga, Fowler, Huntington Park, Ione, Isleton, Loyalton, Manteca, Novato, Orange Cove, Sonoma, South El Monte, South Pasadena, Taft, Union City, Windsor, and Woodland. Click here for the list of the nine cities excluded from this analysis.

** The California Economic Forecast developed the economic forecasts that we used to project revenue reductions, which included range minimums, midpoints, and maximums by revenue source by county. This value is the range midpoint that we used for our final analysis because it is the most accurate projection according to the California Economic Forecast. Click here to read more about our methodology.

Economic Forecasts by Revenue Type and County

The files below includes the forecasts provided by our consultant, the California Economic Forecast. The first file includes forecasts of hotel taxes, sales and use taxes, and business license taxes for fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21 by county. Hotel taxes in fiscal year 2019-20 are based on actual data, so the California Economic Forecast provided a point estimate rather than range minimums or maximums.

The second file includes forecasts for admissions taxes and parking taxes for fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21 by city. As we describe in our methodology, parking taxes and admissions taxes apply only to a small number of cities. We also assume that Indian Wells will lose 100 percent of its admissions tax revenue in fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21 if the BNP Paribas Open tennis tournament is canceled.

Hotel, Sales and Use, and Business License Tax Forecasts

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Admissions and Parking Tax Forecasts

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